The electricity market is middle of a major transformation. Moving to a quarter hour balancing period has changed the way production and consumption are managed. As a result, forecasting accuracy and fast response times are now more important than ever.

After moving to the quarter hour balancing period, many production and consumption units, especially in wind power, have experienced an increase in imbalance errors. Forecasting models that previously worked on an hourly level are no longer able to meet the requirements of the intraday market. This shows the increasing importance of accurate intraday forecasts, real-time data, and tools for balance responsible parties.

Forecasting in a 15-minute balancing period is a complex task

Imbalance errors means that actual production or consumption deviates from the forecast. As the time interval shortens, variations in weather, load, and production become more pronounced. In wind power, rapid gusts can significantly change production even within a single quarter period. Over longer periods, production can change by as much as 50 percent in four hours. On the consumption side, sudden temperature changes, spikes in electric vehicle charging, and other local loads have an immediate impact on the balance.

On a quarter level, even small changes are immediately visible, which increases forecast errors. Underproduction in one quarter can no longer be compensated by overproduction in the next quarter within the same hour. The situation is further complicated by the fact that real-time data is not always perfectly updated (latencies of 10 to 30 seconds), that slowing the forecast’s ability to react. As a result, imbalance errors are typically 1-4 % under normal conditions, but in gusty weather they can exceed 10 percent. In addition, individual faults can increase deviations even further.

Intraday markets provide an opportunity to correct these deviations, but this requires real-time forecasting and rapid decision-making. Balance responsible parties need to rely on continuous monitoring, integration of data from multiple sources, and process automation.

Effective ways to reduce imbalance errors

Reducing imbalance errors requires both more accurate forecasting and rapid response time. Imbalance errors can be managed using the following methods:

1. Real-time monitoring of production and consumption
Real-time monitoring based on data measured from turbines and other production units at intervals of less than a minute. This allows deviations to be detected quickly and intraday forecasts to be updated on the same day, improving the accuracy of 15-minute forecasts.

2. Active intraday trading by quarter-hour intervals
If the production of a customer or production unit deviates from the forecast, a quick purchase or sale can be made on the market. This can basically "halve" the imbalance error for that customer, if the response is quick and storage, flexibility, or controllable loads are available.

3. Controllable loads and energy storage
Controllable load sources and energy storage solutions, such as battery storage, adjustable electric vehicle charging, and other flexibility options, make it possible to balance smaller deviations within a single 15-minute period.

4. Development of forecasting models
Quarter-hour forecasting models, nowcasting (0–2 hour forecasts), and real-time SCADA continuously track both weather conditions and real-time production. Automatic forecast corrections enable faster responses, especially when wind power production changes rapidly.

5. Efficient communication and data Integration
Effective communication and data integration ensure that all units use the same up-to-date information. Both internal and external information exchange improves forecast accuracy and allows deviations to be corrected more quickly in quarter-hour decision-making.

Towards a controlled quarter-hour future

The transition to a 15-minute imbalance settlement period is part of a harmonized European electricity grid. However, the challenges of the quarter-hour balancing period are not temporary. Distributed production and flexibility solutions will continue to grow, further emphasizing the role of the balance responsible party. By combining data, forecasting, and operational control, companies can significantly reduce imbalance errors and improve both financial and operational efficiency.

If you are interested in this topic and would like to discuss it further, feel free to contact us lasse.kankainen@syncrontech.com